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Crise na Venezuela


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Venezuela Sacrifices Drinking Water to Pay Bondholders

 

At a time when Venezuela’s record $25 billion in arrears to importers has its citizens waiting hours in line to buy drinking water and crossing borders in search of medicine, President Nicolas Maduro is using the nation’s dwindling supply of dollars to enrich bondholders.

Venezuela, which imports just about everything, and its state oil producer have paid $2.8 billion in interest to overseas creditors this year, according to Barclays Plc. Including debt principal, bondholder outlays will balloon to almost $10 billion by year-end, the London-based firm estimates.

By putting off the local companies responsible for supplying everything from diapers to cancer medications, Maduro can preserve access to debt markets and protect oil shipments that would be vulnerable to bondholder seizure, said Alejandro Arreaza, an analyst at Barclays. Even if that means fanning the world’s fastest inflation and inflaming protests over shortages that have left at least 42 people dead since February.

“The government’s priority is to pay the sovereign debt,” Alejandro Arreaza, an analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a telephone interview from New York.

Venezuela’s dollar-denominated notes have returned 13.2 percent this year, 1.7 times the 8 percent return seen in emerging markets this year tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBIG Diversified Index.

 

Debt Payments

Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez kept up payments to bondholders, allowing them to reap returns of 692 percent during his 14-year tenure. Venezuela’s benchmark notes due in 2027 rose 1.52 cent today at 1:27 p.m. in New York to 81.85 cents on the dollar. Yields on the securities have fallen 3.1 percentage points to 12 percent since anti-government protests broke out in Caracas on Feb. 12.

Venezuela’s Finance Ministry didn’t respond to e-mail messages sent yesterday seeking comment on the government’s debt-payment policies.

The extra yield investors demand to own Venezuelan bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries fell 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 1,006 basis points today, according to JPMorgan’s EMBIG Diversified Index.

The country’s debt to private companies rose 9 percent to $25 billion in the first quarter, saidAsdrubal Oliveros, director of Caracas-based Ecoanalitica. The amount now exceeds the country’s $22.5 billion of foreign reserves.

PDVSA Debt

State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA is seeking a loan to pay off $3 billion of debt that matures this year and isn’t planning additional dollar bond sales in 2014, a company official said yesterday. PDVSA, as the Caracas-based company is known, is working to refinance an additional $11.9 billion of dollar debt due through 2017 to bring its annual maturities to no more than $3 billion, said the official, who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized to speak publicly.

Economy Vice President Rafael Ramirez said May 30 the government had approved payments of $1.2 billion to small companies for debts in 2012 and 2013, $486 million to airlines, $320 million for large food companies and $123 million for telephone operators. Airlines are owed about $4 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association.

“Venezuela doesn’t have debt with anyone,” Ramirez said. “What we have are pending foreign-exchange liquidations, which we are reviewing.”

‘Critical Level’

Those companies are unlikely to resume normal import levels until past debts are paid, Ecoanalitica’s Oliveros said.

“It’s the first time that it’s ever reached this critical level,” he said by telephone. “And it’s clear that they can’t pay it off at once.”

Consumer prices soared 59 percent in the year through March after the government carried out the biggest devaluation since currency controls were instituted in 2003, with the introduction of the Sicad II system that sells dollars for about 50 bolivars, compared with the official rate of 6.3.

The central bank hasn’t released readings for April or provided data on product scarcity since January, when it said 28 percent of basic goods were out of stock at any given time.

Barclays maintains an overweight call on Venezuelan debt because the government still has a window of about three months to improve the supply of dollars to the economy by allowing oil companiesto sell hard currency into the country’s Sicad II market, according to Arreaza.

Default Outlook

The risk of default is very low because of the country’s “manageable” debt service in the short term, he said.

“There has been a divergence between what happens to Venezuelan bonds in the international market and what happens to businesses that operate inside of Venezuela,” said Francisco Ghersi, a managing director at Knossos Asset Management, which has all of its money invested in Venezuelan debt.

Ghersi’s Knossos Multi-Strategy Segregated Portfolio Fund has returned about 30 percent since inception in June 2011. Ghersi and his partner Carmelo Haddad say living in one of the world’s most violent cities helps them manage risks that fund managers in New York and London don’t see.

Ghersi said he had to swerve his motorcycle around road blocks, tear gas and national guardsmen on the way to work during the anti-government protests in February.

“The market is giving Venezuela the benefit of the doubt and hopes that it applies other economic measures that in one form or another will guarantee its capacity to repay bondholders,” Ghersi said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nathan Crooks in Caracas at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Walsh at [email protected]Dennis Fitzgerald

 

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  Venezuela está a ficar cada vez mais na penúria

 

 

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O Presidente Nicolás Maduro apelou hoje aos venezuelanos para fazerem "uma revolução dentro da revolução" num momento em que é cada pior a conjuntura económica e a situação das empresas públicas do país. A inflação anual ronda já os 60%.

O Presidente Nicolás Maduro apelou hoje para que os venezuelanos impulsionem a "maquinaria estatal" para fazer uma "revolução dentro da revolução" e restaurar a sua força original. Numa intervenção na televisão estatal, o dirigente venezuelano afirmou ser necessário "dar uma grande sacudidela em todo o Estado, em todos os sistemas de Governo, de funcionamento, de tomada de decisões" para recuperar "a força original da revolução bolivariana".

As palavras de Maduro surgem num momento em que, escreve a AFP, é "desastrosa" a situação das empresas públicas do país, "paralisadas pela fraca produtividade e falta de financiamento".

A AFP dá o exemplo da maior empresa público venezuelana, a petrolífera PDVSA, que passou de 51 mil funcionários, em 1999, com uma produção de 63 barris por funcionário por dia, para um total de 140 mil trabalhadores com um destes a não produzir 20 barris por dia. A empresa tem ainda um total de dívidas a fornecedores na ordem dos 16 mil milhões de euros.

Outro caso referido pela AFP é a da grande siderurgia do país, e a maior da América Latina, a Sidor, cuja produção caiu para um terço daquilo que era há seis anos, quando foi expropriada ao grupo argentino Techint, afirma o presidente do sindicato do sector, José Luis Hernandez. O declínio deve-se, segundo este, "à burocracia e à corrupção" e também ao facto de a empresa apenas ter recebido 20% 1,2 mil milhões de dólares para a sua recapitalização. Ou seja, é praticamente impossível aumentar a produção devido "à falta de matérias primas, peças para as máquinas e nova maquinaria", diz o dirigente sindical. Tanto mais que tudo isto tem de ser pago em dólares e estes só são fornecidos pelo Governo, que muitas vezes não concede as autorizações necessárias.

São quase 1300 as empresas públicas no país, empregando 2,6 milhões de pessoas enquanto o setor privado emprega 5,4 milhões, mas a baixa produtividade dos primeiros aliada aos subsídios estatais a numerosos produtos está a contribuir para a "queda da produtividade nacional e para dificuldades crescentes no abastecimento dos mercados", explica à AFP Luís Vicente Leon, da empresa de estudos de mercado Datanalisis.

Assim, falta um em cada quatro produtos de primeira necessidade, escreve a AFP, a crise económica agrava-se e a inflacção atinge já os 60%. E Maduro não desiste de impor "a hegemonia política no partido no poder, a desvalorização da propriedade privada e a implantação de um sistema de planificação central para a economia", afirma Anabella Abadi, economista na consultora ODH.

 

 

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como foi editado não aprece o embed, fica aqui o texto

I don't know about the rest of the country but in my state the long lines are out of control. The government implemented a system in which you are given only one day of the week to be able to buy and this is decided according to your ID number. If your ID's last number is 1-2 you can only buy on Mondays, if it's 3 you only buy on Tuesdays and on and on. That doesn't make the lines any smaller but I guess it would be even worse otherwise. Until recently people used to wake up really early in the morning, usually 4 am, to go to the store and be first in line, waiting several hours until the stores are open or it's their turn to buy. My family tells me they've been waiting in lines as long as 8 hours to get a bag of milk, 2 bottles of cooking oil and flour (to make arepas). Recently they banned people from making lines before stores where opened and started issuing buses with military officers taking anyone who's outside a store before it's open and detaining them for 24 hours. I've heard they make then clean the military's establishment but I have no way of backing this up. They call the buses "Dracula's Bus". This hasn't stopped people from trying to get to the stores early in the morning so what they are doing now is hiding in the bushes so the military can't spot them until they are able to buy.

People used to buy groceries monthly or bi monthly. Now they are living day to day, buying enough food to be able to eat for that day, as opposed to the whole month or 15 days like before. This is due both to the lack of funds to buy enough groceries for a whole month and because of the food regulations which only let you take a fixed ammount of food in your allowed shopping day. The "basic goods basket", which is the ammount of money required to buy basic goods for a month is priced at 40,000 bsf, while the minimum monthly wage is at 7000bsf. 1kg of meat, which is enough to make 1-2 meals for a family of 5 costs 1000bsf. So with minimum wage you are able to buy 7-14 meals in a month without waging in electricity, water, garbage disposal, cable, telephone, internet, school, clothing, etc.

People spend their days thinking what line are they going to be in tomorrow. You often hear "I have to go to [store] tomorrow, they are going to sell [item]." Every day, that's all that's in their minds. If they are driving by the city they are constantly checking lines, trying to see what item's being sold at the moment. If they see people with bags on the street they slow down to try to see what did they buy. "What does he have in his bag?", "Damn! Look! They got toilet paper! God Dammit!!". They sometimes open the car's windows to ask "Hey! Where did you buy that from!?".

This situation has created new jobs. The so called "Bachaqueros". People whose job is to be on a line, buy regulated items and then resell them by many times its original price. People who don't have the time to be on a line has to give in and buy items to the bachaqueros at whatever price they ask for, making the whole business insanely profitable.

And that doesn't even include the whole Colombian border situation. There are many many more issues happening right now but I just focused on the grocery shopping part of it since that's what you asked for. Again, this is specifically in my state, the rest of the states can be either better or worse off than mine.

Edit: Wow people are actually sending me money over the internet, Someone even asked me for a paypal account so they could send me money but there's no way I would make you guys send me money just because of my economic situation. Doesn't feel right to get payed without doing anything to earn it. Thank you very much for the kind act and hopefully someone is as kind to you guys as you're being today for me.

não fazia ideia que isto já estava assim :blink:

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Qual é a cidade desse indivíduo?

 não te sei dizer, sei que a meio da conversa posterior ele mencionou que não era dum estado "turístico" como caracas ou margarita mas dum estado pobre sem Turismo, zullia acho

Mas tem lá mais comentários interessantes

Tipo quando lhe perguntaram bens corriqueiros que são transacionados por valores altos

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@Perks o que tens trazido do reddit é talvez a melhor janela para termos noção do que realmente se passa na Venezuela.

É um país que está à beira do abismo. Mais tarde ou mais cedo terá de haver uma mudança de regime.

Edited by P4rthen0n
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Não há dinheiro para comida, nem comida para comprar, mas o Maduro mandou o exército para os maiores exercícios militares da história do país. Ele sabe que se mantiver o exército satisfeito, não sai do lugar, mantendo o fantasma da "invasão dos americanos".

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